Mémoire sur les intégrales définies, et leur application aux probabilités, et spécialement à la recherche du milieu qu'il faut choisir entre les résultats des observations.

4to: 68 pp., numbered: 279-347 (very sl. soiled 1st pp.).

Mod. binding.

First edition of this very rare memoir in which Laplace considers the use of definite integrals in probability theory. Laplace was more important to the early development of mathematical statistics than any other individual. The present memoir was presented to the Académie and hereafter published in the "Mémoires de l'Institut national des sciences et arts: sciences mathématiques et physiques" (T. 11 (1810-1811), pp. 279-347), of which this copy is extracted. A 2nd edition makes part of the "Oeuvres complètes de Laplace" (T. 12 (1878-1912), pp. 357–412). Although this memoir is referred to in almost every work because it reworked error theory and forms the core for the statistical portion of Laplace's later "Théorie analytique", we could not find any other copy.
Ref. Landmark Writings in Western Mathematics, p. 811. - Not in BnF. - Not in Honeyman. - Not in Horblitt. - Stigler, S.-M. Studies in the History of Probability and Statistics. XXXIV: Napoleonic statistics: The work of Laplace, Biometrika, Volume 62, Issue 2, August 1975, pp. 503–517.